Lets Hope He Gambled Correctly

The most recent Gallup polls all have Obama beating McCain by 8 to 9%. But is that enough? And, I really mean it – though it may seem like the Obama-Biden ticket seems to have wrapped up the election with November nearing, they may need a double digit lead to even come close. Not only is Obama counting on young voters of America – those who have a historic tendency to fail to show up to vote – ,but he is also being potentially misled by the polls conducted day-to-day.This may sound harsh, but it is known as the Bradley Effect – as African-American governor-elect for California learned.
Back in 1982, Tom Bradley ran for Governor of California. He was the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, and though he was up in the polls (early prints of the San Francisco Cronicle read “Bradley Win Projected” on the cover), he was narrowly defeated in the final vote by “The Duke”. The Bradley Effect is the idea that, in a race with a white candidate and an African-American candidate, there is a tendency by some voters to tell pollsters that they are either undecided or more likely to vote for an African-American candidate and then, at the polls, actually vote for the white candidate.
Now, this may be diminishing in American politics, but it interesting to note that the polls may not be as accurate as they seem. Another problem with part of the Obama-Biden constituency is that it historically doesn’t vote. In 2000, young citizens (between 18-35), only 35% of the population voted. In 2004, though, the same group turned out 47%. This is much better – and it will hopefully be much higher in this election. Though the turnout rose 12% in 2004, it still lagged behind adults of all other age groups. In fact, 9% less young people between ages 18-25 vote. And Barack Obama is banking on these votes. Hopefully people our age vote, but chances are we won’t jump over 50% turnout – which is really a sad reality of our society.
What Barack Obama must have hope in is the fact that the Bradley Effect has diminished in this country. Though it is sad that a minority candidate must “hope” that the polls are not biased because of voter tendencies, it is a truth. Luckily, in the 2006 Senate elections, it seems that the Bradley Effect was much less present. Remember Senate-elect Harold Ford Jr. Well, probably not because his campaign lost in Tennessee. But, polling and voter records seem to be in line – white voters who said they would vote for Ford did vote for him. So, maybe it is a moot issue.
And, when we look at the youth, it seems that this election is much different than most. Not only is everyone “Rocking the Vote”, there is a real excitement and giddiness in university settings. People are ready for change, hopefully they turn out to vote for it.